我国信用风险缓释市场发展与创新

随着我国融资市场快速发展,信用风险管理面临严峻挑战,信用风险缓释市场亟待发展创新.然而,受金融危机影响,我国金融从业人员在观念、认识和态度上对信用风险缓释工具(CRM)存在诸多不明.本文通过解析CRM市场结构、CDS定价机制,以及中国CRM市场发展对策,帮助金融从业人员正确认识CRM市场功能,提升CRM市场参与能力,为...     

Austrian Business Cycle Theory, Keynes’s General Theory, Soaring Wheat Prices, and Subprime Mortgage Write-Downs

Keynes’s presentation of own rates of interest on wheat and housing is set within Austrian business cycle theory, to show that soaring wheat prices and subprime mortgage writedowns are expected, when a monetary authority holds interest rates too low for too long. From that basis, further interest rate cuts are an unlikely remedy for a recession whose roots lie in a proliferation of credit.     

我国产学研合作应加强政府信用监管

产学研合作，是促进科技与经济结合，提高企业的科技创新能力，加快科技成果转化的重要方式，也是建设创新型国家和创新型城市的重要内容。产学研合作离不开信用制度的支撑。信用不仅是现代市场经济发展的基础，也是产学研合作有序发展的不可或缺的基本要素。如何加强政府对产学研合作信用的有效监管，并通过有效的制度安排，形成产学研合作的信用制度规范，就成为当前亟待解决的一个重要问题。     

比较视野下论我国征信体系的发展与完善问题

征信在国外已有100多年的发展历史，已形成较为完善的征信体系和完整的征信产业链。通过对信用发达国家征信体系的比较，系统分析当前我国征信体系存在的供求不足和制度短缺等问题，并借鉴国外先进经验和教训，提出发展和完善我国征信体系的思路和措施。     

Correlation smile matching for collateralized debt obligation tranches with α-stable distributions and fitted Archimedean copula models

As an extension of the standard Gaussian copula model to price collateralized debt obligation (CDO) tranche swaps we present a generalization of a one-factor copula model based on stable distributions. For special parameter values these distributions coincide with Gaussian or Cauchy distributions, but changing the parameters allows a continuous deformation away from the Gaussian copula. All these factor copulas are embedded in a framework of stochastic correlations. We furthermore generalize the linear dependence in the usual factor approach to a more general Archimedean copula dependence between the individual trigger variable and the common latent factor. Our analysis is carried out on a non-homogeneous correlation structure of the underlying portfolio. CDO tranche market premia, even throughout the correlation crisis in May 2005, can be reproduced by certain models. From a numerical perspective, all these models are simple, since calculations can be reduced to one-dimensional numerical integrals.     

中国开行地方政府债券的先决条件研究

是否允许地方政府发行债券是一个颇具争议的话题。本文通过运用宪政经济学和新公共管理理论的分析方法,对开行地方政府债券发行权利的先决条件进行了论述。结合目前中国实际,文章认为目前开行地方政府债券的条件尚不完全具备,并建议下一步推进政府债券的关键在于可行性建设。     

The valuation of a firm’s investment opportunities: a reduced form credit risk perspective

This paper develops a valuation model for a firm’s investment opportunities. Given standard market imperfections, we show that maximizing the firm’s equity value is consistent with the need to include a capital charge for an investment specific to a firm’s capital structure and in excess of the investment’s market determined risk. A reduced form credit risk perspective is taken to enable a continuous time implementation. This continuous time implementation is illustrated within the paper.      

信贷渠道对我国股票市场的影响

信贷渠道是我国货币政策主要的传导渠道。货币政策通过传导渠道对股票市场产生影响。本文运用协整与基于向量自回归模型的格兰杰因果检验和预测方差分解等时间序列分析方法,实证分析信贷渠道对股票市场的影响,结果表明信贷渠道对我国股票市场产生显著的负相关影响。     

Banking deregulation and credit risk: Evidence from the EU

This paper studies the effect of banking deregulation on credit risk. Its theoretical model shows that a bank is willing to invest more resources in screening borrowers when there is an entry threat, even though loan rates are driven lower. Thus, deregulation may result in improved loan quality and lower credit risk. This result is tested using bank-level balance sheet data and macroeconomic data for the European Union. The data reveal that competition intensified after the completion of the Second Banking Directive, while loan quality improved in most markets. Evidence is found that the loan quality improvement is associated with lower interest margin.     

信用风险水平与宏观经济变量的实证研究——基于中国、美国、日本部分银行的比较分析

基于1999～2007年中国、美国和日本部分银行的不良贷款率数据,本文对影响银行信用风险的宏观经济因素进行了实证研究和比较分析。结果表明:(1)中国的银行信用风险水平与失业率呈现显著的负相关关系;(2)表面上美国的银行信用风险水平极低,而且不受宏观经济变量波动的影响,但是实际上其风险被金融衍生工具隐藏并积累起来;(3)日本的银行信用风险水平与CPI呈现显著的负相关关系。最后本文提出了几点建议。